Selected Publications

Strategy and Grand Strategy (IISS, Adelphi Series, 2025). 

Chaos Reconsidered: The Liberal Order and the Future of International Politics, co-editor (Columbia University Press, 2023).

Chaos in the Liberal Order: The Trump Presidency and International Politics in the 21st Century, co-editor (Columbia University Press, 2018). 

Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence (Cornell University Press, 2011). Winner of the Furniss Award and the International Security Studies Book Award (International Studies Association). 

“History is Written by the Losers: Strategy and Grand Strategy in the Aftermath of War,” Journal of Strategic Studies (online February 2024; forthcoming in print).

"Theory of Sabotage," Etudes Françaises de Renseignement et de Cyber, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2023). 

"The Meaning of China's Nuclear Modernization," with Caitlin Talmadge, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 46, Nos. 6-7 (2023). 

“Strategy and Grand Strategy in New Domains,” in Hal Brands, ed., New Makers of Modern Strategy (Princeton University Press, 2023).

"The Elements of an Intelligence Contest," in Robert Chesney and Max Smeets, eds., Deter, Disrupt, or Decieve? Assessing Cyber Conflict as an Intelligence Contest (Georgetown University Press, 2023).

"Spies as Agents of Peace," in Kurt Almqvist, Alastair Benn, and Mattias Hessérus, eds., Man and Technology: How Humanity Thrives in a Changing World (Bokförlaget Stolpe, 2022).

“Intelligence and Grand Strategy,” in Ronald R. Krebs and Thierry Balzacq, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Grand Strategy (Oxford University Press, 2021).

“Warfighting and Cyberspace,” in Emily Goldman, Michael Warner, and Jacquelyn Schneider,eds. Ten Years In: Implementing Strategic Approaches to Cyberspace (Naval War College, Newport Papers, 2021).

“What is an Intelligence Contest?” Texas National Security Review, Vol 3, No. 4 (2020).

"Strategy and the Surge," in Engel et al, The Last Card: Inside George W. Bush's Decision to Surge in Iraq (Cornell University Press, 2019).

“A Long War in the East: Doctrine, Diplomacy, and the Prospects for Protracted U.S.-China Conflict,” Diplomacy & Statecraft, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2018).

"Does the Internet Need a Hegemon?" with Tyler Moore, Journal of Global Security Studies, Vol. 2, No. 3 (2017). 

"Two Kinds of Catastrophe: Nuclear Escalation and Protracted War in Asia," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 40, No. 5 (2017).

"Intelligence and National Security Decision Making," in Derek Reveron, Nicholas Gvosdev, and John Cloud, eds., The Oxford Handbook of U.S. National Security (Oxford University Press, 2017). 

"After America: The Flow of Persian Gulf Oil in the Absence of U.S. Military Force," in Charles Glaser and Rose Kelanic, eds., Crude Strategy: Reexaminng the Oil Logic of America's Military Presence in the Persian Gulf (Georgetown University Press, 2016). 

"Less is More: The Future of the U.S. Military in the Persian Gulf," with Caitlin Talmadge, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 3 (2014). 

"Delusion of Defeat: The United States and Iraq, 1990-1998," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 37, No. 4 (2014).

"Hegemony, Force Posture, and the Provision of Public Goods: The Once and Future Role of Outside Powers in Securing Persian Gulf Oil," with Caitlin Talmadge, Security Studies, Vol. 23, No. 3 (2014). 

"Intelligence in the Twitter Age" International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol. 26, No. 2 (2013). 

"Is Politicization Ever a Good Thing?" Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 23, No. 1 (2013). 

"After Proliferation: Deterrence Theory and Emerging Nuclear Powers," in Yoshihara and Holmes, eds., Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon (Georgetown University Press, 2012).